Predictions from a Cloudy Crystal Ball - By Matthew Greene

Looking into your crystal ball, what's the writing business going to look like 5 years from now? Do you think it's going to be more or less the same, or will AI and other technology trends transform it dramatically - if so, how?

Before the rise of AI, I think I would have been a little more confident about making predictions five years into the future. But things seem to be moving so quickly, changing so dramatically, that it's hard to imagine what may come next. Every day, it seems, I read another headline about how this new technology is fundamentally changing the way our world works. Sure, most of these are click bait, rage bait, or some other kind of bait…but it’s tough to keep up with everything I’m supposed to worry about.

I say all this to set expectations about my fortune telling prowess—it’s harder than ever to foresee what’s coming down the pike. (I almost didn’t use an em dash in that last sentence, since ChatGPT seems particularly fond of them. But I refuse to let the robots co-opt my favorite punctuation mark!) However, a little speculation never hurt anybody. And I’d be delighted to be wrong about some of these predictions. So, here goes…

1.    THE RISE OF AI SLOP WILL EBB AND FLOW IN THE PUBLISHING WORLD, BUT NEVER REALLY DISAPPEAR. We’re already seeing content being generated by large language models that is a sad, sorry approximation of genre fiction. It’s downright criminal that this stuff is a bastardization of stolen work being passed off as original “content,” but I take comfort in the fact that people are already getting pretty good at sniffing it out. As long as there’s an easy buck to be made, AI-generated books will probably stick around (all the more reason to elect leaders who will push to regulate this technology!), but I don’t think this is reason to despair. It’s a call to action to create unique stories that only you can tell, reflections of a human experience that readers won’t find in synthetic prose. It’s also why I predict that…

2.    PERSONAL CONNECTIONS WITH AUTHORS WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER. As discerning readers seek out human stories told by human writers, I think they’ll be eager to form more human connections. I predict that authors will need to be more active on social media and at in-person events to help readers put a face to the work they’re reading. This is a tough one for me, since I’d much rather hide behind my words than be seen and heard as their creator. But in an increasingly disconnected and divided world, we’re going to need to commune with readers like never before. Especially in light of my next prediction…

3.    BOOKS WILL BE USED AS AMMUNITION IN THE CULTURE WARS AND AS A LIFESAVING ANTIDOTE TO DIVISIVE, DEHUMANIZING RHETORIC. We’re already seeing the devastating rise of book bans and anti-intellectualism in the USA and beyond. But the more people rail against the written word, the more they’re inadvertently confirming what we book lovers have always believed: literature remains one of the most potent and powerful forces in our world. So, while I hate seeing books about marginalized identities pulled from library shelves and schools, every instance of censorship should be a reminder that these works have the power to change the world. The optimistic part of this prediction is the belief that if we can preserve access to a diverse array of stories, there still may be hope that we can bridge cultural divides and heal an ailing world. It’s why books make dictators so damn nervous.

4.    AS EVERY OTHER ENTERTAINMENT SECTOR CLINGS TO IP ADAPTATIONS, BOOKS WILL BE THE ONLY PLACE PEOPLE CAN TURN FOR TRULY ORIGINAL STORIES. This is another prediction that is only part pessimism. It’s no secret that Hollywood seems allergic to new, exciting ideas. (With a few fabulous exceptions, like Sinners, that prove the rule.) Broadway seems to be following suit, with most “new” shows adapted from pre-existing brands. This makes the book world more important than ever, as the true birthplace of original stories. As people experience franchise fatigue elsewhere, I optimistically predict that audiences will turn over a new leaf (literally!) and get back into the habit of reading. Maybe this will mean more focus on audio and short-form episodic content, but I think we should prepare over the next five years for an influx of readers looking for a break from the same rehashed stories they're getting elsewhere.

I’ll stop there, in the interest of leaving on a hopeful note. It’s easy to wring our hands about the state of affairs in the writing business and beyond, but I do think there’s reason to hope. (And to reclaim the em dash—we deserve it.) We’re entering uncertain times, to be sure, but the power of storytelling has remained a constant throughout history. I know when I’m feeling unmoored or uncertain, I like to curl up with a good book. Here’s hoping many others will do the same!