What's the writing business going to look like 5 years from now? Do you think it's going to be more or less the same, or will AI and other technology trends transform it dramatically - if so, how?
If someone offered to tell my future for free, I would normally run from them, as far and fast as I can. I don't want to know what my future will bring - if it's not good news, I would be paralyzed by fear, and if it is good news, I'd probably become complacent and give up any form of active striving.
But when it comes to the book writing business, I wouldn't run away - in fact I'd be sorely tempted to steal a crystal ball if I knew where one was to be found. As a teacher too - I know it's getting harder and harder to design assessments because students can so easily AI the answer. I have colleagues teaching coding courses who are resorting to pen-and-paper exams, because that's the only way for them to tell if students have understood the philosophy behind the coding - or if they have asked ChatGPT to write the code for them. I've always preferred take-home, open book exams because they encouraged creative thinking, as opposed to rote memorization - but AI has turned all of that upside down.
What about book writing, though? I can see AI editing and translation software becoming widely used by writers - at least for copy editing. But I think a good development editor is worth their price in gold, and can't be replaced - even in 5 years - by AI. Similarly, books that display lateral thinking, creative books that connect two different genres or play with tropes in an unexpected way - go against the grain of most AI algorithms, which rely on training algorithms - that is to say, they can do more of what they are taught to do, and probably learn how to do it well, but can they do something completely new, which hasn't been done before? I'd be surprised - though I'm not saying no for now. The speed at which these algorithms evolve is quite something.
Would I ever want to use AI to write a book? No - it would suck out all the fun from the process. I can't understand why writers would want to use AI to write text, or plot out an entire book, though I expect many will use generative AI to flood the market with books. These books will be substandard, because their purpose is only to make money, not to create something beautiful - but if they can be generated in the millions and billions at the click of a button, how will readers find the books they want to read? How can we bring back serendipity, the joy a reader experiences at discovering a new book or author whom they never heard of - and then get drawn into the worlds they create?
That's what I worry about, when I worry about AI. Not that writers will still write books, and readers will want to read them. But - how will readers find writers that sparkle and catch their eye, when the landscape is filled with cheap rubbish?
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